When our oil supplies are cut off

I continue to follow the news and reports regarding peak oil, quite closely. This morning, there was an interesting story on the front page of my daily newspaper, by Jim Krane of the Associated Press.

Apparently, saboteurs triggered a cascade of power blackouts that dramatically curtailed oil exports from Iraq. This brief disruption cost the country nearly $60 million in lost exports and consequently rattled world commodity markets.

The recent dramatic increases in gasoline and oil prices have made many Americans sit up and question what is driving the price of petroleum. Our dependence on foreign oil has made America increasingly vulnerable to any variations of scenarios similar to what happened in Iraq.

A mock exercise called Oil Shockwave was recently conducted to simulate various global events that could dramatically impact and curtail American supplies of oil. This bipartisan exercise involving members of America’s energy, military and intelligence communities revealed some shocking possibilities should major disruptions impact our access to foreign oil.

In this exercise, by removing only 3.5 million barrels of oil, from a global total of 83 million barrels resulted in:

• Gasoline prices of $5.74 per gallon;
• Global oil price of $161 per barrel;
• Heating oil prices of $5.14 per gallon;
• Fall of gross domestic product for two consecutive quarters;
• Drop in consumer confidence by 30 percent;
• Spike in the consumer price index to 12.6 percent;
• Ballooning of the current accounts deficit to $1.087 trillion;
• Decline of 28 percent in the S&P 500;
• Aggressive pressure on the U.S. from China to end arm sales to Taiwan, and;
• Demands from Saudi Arabia for changes to U.S. policy regarding the Mid-East peace process.

Obviously, our dependence on foreign supplies of oil, as well as our administration's continued lack of an energy policy that addresses this, imperils all Americans and our futures.

With the very real possibility of a future that could be dramatically different than our current auto-centric daily lives, Americans continue to sleepwalk through their daily trips to the mall, Wal-Mart and lengthy commutes, oblivious to what the future may hold for them.

FMI about the Oil Shockwave exercise, you can read about it here:

You can also visit the site for Securing America's Future Energy to learn more.

NPR also carried a program that I was less impressed with, particularly due to some of the "players", particularly oil company shill, Daniel Yergin. Still, the program gives an overview of the issue, albeit with few if any real solutions.

For slightly more provocative views regarding peak oil, might I suggest the Oil Empire site.

The proof is in the pudding

Yesterday, I drove to Augusta, to pick up my proofs from the printer. It was a strange, but exhilarating feeling, holding that which will be my book.

The proof is basically the actual cover, which is loose, and sections of the book, in page order, stapled together in sections (in my case, 10 seperate ones). It really helps the author to see how the final product will look.

I had a few concerns about how my actual font was going to look and about my photos. Other than two, which are a little dark (the original resolution wasn't high enough), they reproduced very well. The text looks great and other than a few minor typos that I'm finding, things are shaping up for the book's release.

I haven't received my printing date as of yet, but the target for me to return the proofs is Friday and I know that I'll have it back to J.S. McCarthy (my printer) before that. The folks at JSM have been absolutely fantastic! I could have gone with a cheaper printer (although their estimate was in the ballpark with some of the bargain printers), but I would have ended up with a book that was inferior. Their customer service and attention to detail has been reassuring. Being that When Towns Had Teams is my first go-round at publishing, having the extra support was beneficial.

I think it's safe to say that I'll have books in early September and those who have placed orders should be receiving books in about 3-4 weeks, if not before that.

Needless to say, I'm feeling pretty stoked right now!

American disconnect

Now that When Towns Had Teams is finished, waiting to roll off the press at some point between now and the first of September, I’ve been able to step back and take a breath. There is still much to do on the marketing front, to make sure enough people buy the book, or at least allow RiverVision to break even. I have no illusions of growing rich off my publishing venture, but I would like to be able to bring out another book next year and possibly a book by another non fiction writer doing something unique, and Maine-related.

With a few days of “normalcy” under my belt, I’ve been slowly reintroducing myself to the happenings outside of my writer’s cocoon. Like a diver coming up slowly to avoid the bends, I’ve been reading some news articles, a bit of commentary and perusing some blogs, all with an eye to reacquaint with the American dystopia.

Maybe it’s the post-production letdown that’s inevitable after weeks of 16 hour days, readying my book for press. Then again, maybe it’s the reality that I see making me as cynical and lacking in any form of optimism as I’ve ever been.

For instance, a mother who lost her son in this debacle we call a war in Iraq, has been protesting outside President Bush’s Crawford home, where he’s been on a month-long vacation. I don’t even want to get into the propriety of taking a vacation while Americans are dying in the desert so Americans can have access to cheap oil.

Every summer since this spoiled little rich kid has been president, he’s had to retire to Crawford for his annual month of two-hour bike rides (with secret service detail riding along the back roads near Bush’s ranch), brush clearing, Little League baseball games and a GOP fundraiser or two—all the while, refusing to meet with Cindy Sheehan, conducting her vigil, protesting the war.

Apparently, the president believes he needs his vacations because he thinks the American people “want the president to be in a position to make good, crisp decisions and to stay healthy”. Interestingly, he’s not been able to make one decision that benefited working class people in this country, healthy or not!

We have a president who struts around and acts more like an emperor, or a king, than a president of a country that claims democracy for its citizens. It’s not surprising that we have a man lacking in basic human decency and empathy for ordinary Americans. From the time he was born, he’s occupied a world of privilege and perks that most Americans will never come close to obtaining.

In writing my book, set in a period just after World War II, and moving through the 1950’s and 1960’s, I was able to reflect on a time when there was still hope for better lives, and opportunity characterized the lives of most Americans. This was a period when a high school graduate like my Dad, could raise and support a family and send two kids to college, on his salary from the paper mill. When the mill where he worked was in its heyday, my Dad used to work overtime regularly, which allowed my Mom to stay home. I don’t want to get into the pros and cons of stay-at-home-mothers, but my life growing up during the 60’s was idyllic compared to that of children today. With drive-thru daycare, mother’s working long hours and children being tired and cranky whenever they’re in public, I don’t think things are better off today.

While our president can take month-long vacations on the dime of the American taxpayer, many of those taxpayers can’t afford to take vacations of their own. Many small business people haven’t taken a vacation in years. The person who I buy wood from, works two jobs (his wood business and a hunting lodge he owns up north) and works seven days a week, 52 weeks each year. I would have loved to take a week or two to unwind after working so hard to get my book to market, but my wife and I can’t afford to spend the money, or do we have the time needed to get away.

Recently, while driving home from Portland, I happened to catch someone on Air America Radio talking about retirement in the U.S. With corporations shifting the burden of retirement onto the backs of their workers, retirement income is now a product of the investment strategies inherent in 401K plans, as well as the whims of the stock market. Just to have $12,000 to $18,000 salted away in a 401K, a worker would need about $150,000 saved in an account when he retires. Since I just liquidated my retirement to finance my publishing venture, the odds aren’t too good that I’ll be retiring any time soon. Thank god for bottles on the side of the road! I’m not complaining, as anyone who goes the small business route, knows perfectly well the paucity of finance options available for capitalizing any small, or micro business venture.

Once again, we have a president and his party that blathers on ad nauseum about small business and how it is an important engine of our economy. Yet, neither he, nor his party (or the Democrats for that matter, those so-called champions of the working class) enact anything in the way of policies to benefit small businesses. Everything is about corporate tax breaks for big business and the ruling class, the well-heeled benefactors bankrolling our oligarchy.

Granted, much of what American presidents do is symbolic, but it might be beneficial if our current president tossed a bone to those of us who actually work hard and care about our communities. Instead, we are forced to watch the hijacking of place by corporate raiders, with their box stores, boat launches, and high-priced condos, raping and pillaging what little connection we have with who we used to be.

American's need for war

I’ve spent much of the past three weeks working feverishly on When Towns Had Teams. Yesterday, at 2:15 pm, I sent my pre-press materials via file transfer to my printer. Now, I can finally exhale, as a large weight feels like it’s been lifted from me.

Over this period of 16 to 18 hour days, it was hard to focus on much of anything not directly related to the book. Making lists, checking off items, and creating new lists of things that had to be done, occupied most of my waking hours. I’ve read very little in the newspaper, other than a cursory glance through the front page, on most days. This enforced period of work had me tunneled deeply into my project.

Occasionally, I’d allow myself a brief respite from my labor. One of the few sites I’d bother to check out was Jim Kunstler’s site. If you read my blog, you’ll know that I’ve mentioned him numerous times, of late. The reason why, is that he seems to have an ability to cut through the fog of narcissism and self-interest that envelopes American culture.

Last night, I had to return some software that I had purchased over the weekend, thinking I would need it to complete my file transfer. Happily, I didn’t need to use my $300 Adobe Acrobat, instead, finding the ScanSoft PDF-Professional adequate for my needs, at 1/3rd the price. On my way home, I stopped at a eating (and of course, drinking) establishment in Yarmouth, Grill 233. In the mood to celebrate a bit, I had dinner at the bar and enjoyed a couple of Bluepaw Wheats, courtesy of Sea Dog Brewing Company.

While sitting at the bar, I was able to catch the evening news on CBS. As someone who rarely watches mainstream news programs, I still was drawn to the screen, like a moth is to flame. Listening and watching the shallow analysis that passes for news, particularly on a story involving rising fuel prices, was maddening. When I asked the bartender if he knew much about peak oil, he got that glazed over look that I see often when I speak to people about the subject. He obviously didn’t know about it, and was looking to blame oil companies for the rise in prices. While Exxon, Mobil, Shell and others aren’t without blame, the issue is more complex than the talking head with the nice head of hair was able to articulate in his staccato soundbite pops of information.

Back to Kunstler and his recent post on the war. If you don’t know it, I’m a registered Independent. While I succumbed to some degree to the insipid “Anybody but Bush” thinking during the last presidential debacle, I recognize that both parties are leading us over the cliff with their policies that continue to enrich the wealthiest, at everyone else’s expense. Liberals are death merchants in their own ways, with their flawed thinking and morally-superior attitudes. As a matter of fact, I can’t say that I’ve met too many true liberals that I liked much better than the most rabid members of the right-wing.

Kunstler, riffing about Harry Shearer, he of Le Show fame (on NPR), hits some of the issues that I have with liberals, squarely on the head. Take for instance their opposition of the war. While there are those who deplore war in any form, for many, I think it’s about their antipathy for George Bush. If their man (Kerry, Clinton, or whoever) were occupying the West Wing, they probably wouldn’t be offering a peep of opposition.

As Kunstler writes, regarding Shearer’s recent program, where he was speaking about his opposition to the war in Iraq.

“This, of course, is the predicament of the Democrats, my own party. They have no interest in modifying the nation's suicidal suburban sprawl lifestyle either, only in the easy pretenses of political correctness. Instead of twanging on WMDs and the depravity of the war in Iraq, I'd like to hear someone like Harry Shearer (or John Kerry, or Nancy Pelosi, or Harry Reid) stand up and pitch for restoring the US passenger rail system. I'd like to hear some of these assholes propose some meaningful changes that Americans can make in behavior so we won't be so desperate to engage in military contests over the oil we need to drive for sushi in Los Angeles."

Despite rising gas prices, hardships and difficulties facing the poor and elderly this winter heating their homes, and the continued escalation in consumption of petroleum in places like China and India, Americans refuse to consider modifying any of their “drive everywhere we go” behavior. Even if some of us would like public transportation options, in a state like Maine, there are virtually none. I’m afraid we’re in for some difficult days ahead.

While getting the hell out of Iraq would be nice (and I’m certainly for it), I also recognize why we’re there, as does Kunstler, as well as a few others. You can’t allow destabilization of a region that controls much of the world’s oil, particularly when you need so much of it to fuel one’s multiple car trips to Wal-Mart (and Staples, in my case).

War certainly isn’t the answer, but until we find some way around having to drive everywhere we go, it will continue to be part of the equation.

Preview chapter available for When Towns Had Teams

I know that many of you have pre-ordered When Towns Had Teams. From my perspective, this has been extremely gratifying. Knowing that people have faith that I'll deliver on my promises breeds confidence, as well as some anxiety.

In order to reward readers, as well as give you a brief sneak preview of what you'll be holding in your hands in about four weeks, my webmaster and design guru, Jonathan Braden, has put a sample chapter up on the website.

Keep in mind that the formatting is a bit different than the book (the book will be 6 X 9), but this is a representative section of the kind of stories and flavor of the book.

This weekend has been a blur, finalizing many details, preparing to transmit files to the printer on Monday. I wouldn't be where I am right now without two immensely helpful people. As a designer, Jonathan Braden has gone above and beyond what I've asked him to do. Additionally, he's been encouraging at a time that has been trying, to say the least. That kind of diligence is hard to find, and it has allowed me to get to the point where I can start to get excited about my finished product. My wife, Mary, has spent much of the past two days reading through the manuscript, checking for formatting bugs, words that got pushed together during changes, and a few odds-and-ends that inevitably sneak through, even after the most thorough editing. It hasn't been easy to be Mrs. R'Vision Press the past two weeks.

A publisher is only as good as his support network and mine has been top-notch!