Oil's dwindling supply

From London's Financial Times, regarding Big Oil's recognition of peak oil and a possible crisis of global proportions.

Big Oil warns of coming energy crunch
By Carola Hoyos/Financial Times
Published: August 4 2005

International oil companies have advertising campaigns warning that the world is running out of oil and calling on the public to help the industry do something about it.
Most of the executives ofThe world's five largest energy groups generally maintain that oil projects are viable with the price at which they test a project’s viability is within the around $20 a barrel. range. But their advertising and some of their companies' own statistics appear to tell a different story.

ExxonMobil, the world's largest energy group, said in a recent advertisement: “The world faces enormous energy challenges. There are no easy answers.” And the companies' statistics back up the sentiment. In The Outlook for Energy: A 2030 View, the Irving, Texas-based company forecasts that oil production outside the Organisation ofthe Petroleum Exporting Countries, the cartel that controls three-quarters of the world's oil reserves, will reach its peak in just five years.

Chevron, the US's second-largest energy group, sends a similar message, but goes two steps further. “One thing is clear: The era of easy oil is over. We call upon scientists and educators, politicians and policy-makers, environmentalists, leaders of industry and each one of you to be part of reshaping the next era of energy. Inaction is not an option,” was the message in a recent advertising campaign. The company has even set up a website, warning of the pressures of high demand and fewer fields and offering a forum of discussion.


One senior executive at an oil company not involved in the advertising campaigns speculated that his counterparts were attempting to buy themselves some slack to go after the messier, more expensive, dirty oil. Another executive said it may buy some sympathy for the difficulty many companies are having in growing developing their production and reserves.
Total, the French oil company, this week made the latest acquisition in theCanada's vast Athabasca oil sands, where companies are extracting extra tar-like bitumen from sand in an expensive and environmentally tricky mining operation.

Yves-Marie Dilibard, Total's director of communications, explaining the logic behind its campaign, said: “Tomorrow's energy needs mean developing new energy techniques, going further and deeper in the search of oil and gas. That's at the heart of Total's work today.”
Royal Dutch Shell and BP, Europe's biggest energy groups, have recently felt the effects of venturing into more difficult frontiers. Shell was forced by environmentalists to reroute a pipeline that threatened rare whales in Russia's arctic and last month warned of a $10bn (€8bn, £5.6bn) cost overrun at its Sakhalin project there. Meanwhile, BP battled with a platform in the deep waters of the US Gulf of Mexico that was severely bent by hurricane Dennis.

In its advertisements BP touts new energy alternatives, while ExxonMobil, which has unapologetically abandoned alternatives that have not been profitable, says in one advertisement: “Wishful thinking must not cloud real thinking.”

But answering the concerns of the consumer, even about the possible shortage of oil, is not the primary job of an oil company. Its most important stakeholders are its stock shareholders, some of whom have been left perplexed by the advertisements after hearing a very n altogether different message at last week's earnings conferences.

Neil McMahon, analyst at Sanford Bernstein, said: “We think these messages are at odds with the comments normally made to investors regarding future oil prices and the ability of producers to meet demand, and we wonder if perhaps those messages are actually a better indicator of the companies' thinking.”

Consumers are also not the primary concern of an even more important group: the national oil companies of producing countries, such as Saudi Arabia. The kingdom has as its first priority its growing population and the stability of the regime. This – together with the increased difficulty of finding new oil – is part of the reason for the capacity crunch, analysts and executives agree.
No amount of advertising is likely to change that dynamic.

**A recent simulation shows the very real possibilities of terrorism interrupting oil supplies and what it could do to world markets. This all-too-real scenario would wreak economic disaster in the U.S. and certainly end American's multiple daily trips to the local Wal-Mart or Target store.

Irregularity

I apologize for the paucity of posts of late. One of the things I think is essential in blogging, is regular updates, or at least something bordering on the semi-regular variety. Having said that however, I also recognize that having content merely for the sake of saying, “hey, I’ve updated my blog” rings hollow very quickly.

I find that much of what I’m focused on of late is very local, personal and close to home. Hence, I’ve been more diligent and faithful at updating my content at my WriteforYou site of late. I like the Greymatter platform for pictures much better, although I’ve not really utilized that feature in Blogger.

Ultimately, my time has been divided, between the book, baseball responsibilities to the Twilight League, as well as having more responsibilities on the part-time job front. Needless to say, my creative energy that I’ve often focused on this blog has been flagging for much of the summer.

There are days when I look at my investment of time that I have in When Towns Had Teams and the work I’ve put into trying to get RiverVision Press off the ground and I question my vision and even my sanity. Having to do every aspect save a few is overwhelming and often leaves me discouraged and exhausted at the end of each day. I find that my interpersonal relationships have suffered due to the stress, as well as being unable to enjoy many things that at one time gave me pleasure.

With the end of my own team’s season in the Twilight League (my club failed to qualify for the playoffs), I’ll have a bit more time than I’ve had since May. I also have been able to finalize the fundraising yearbook that I had dumped in my lap, which required selling ads, bartering my writing services with a designer for layout, as well as having to secure a printer at rock-bottom rates. It has been a crazy summer up to this point.

I honestly don’t see myself devoting as much focus and energy to Words Matter for at least another three to four weeks. With final edits, layout and then, marketing When Towns Had Teams, my energies are once again going to be taxed over the next few weeks.

I wanted to end on a positive note, as the overall tone of this post has been more negative than I originally intended. Yesterday, I went to my PO Box in Freeport, where I have my box for RiverVision Press. I pulled out 11 orders for my book! I’ve had a steady stream of people pre-ordering the book via mail order, or online at the site. Needless to say, these orders encourage me, validate what I’m doing and give me some hope. I still have a tough row to hoe in generating enough of a buzz about the book to at least break even and dare I say it, make a slight profit. Once the edits are done and it goes to the printer, then I’ll have to ramp up the PR machine and see what I can do in the way of a media onslaught.

On the book front

Final preparations are being made for the printing of When Towns Had Teams. As most of you have noticed, I’ve been posting less on my blog (s). Much of that has had to do with the inordinate amount of things required of me as an independent publisher.

In forming RiverVision Press, my goal was to create a small press that has the capability to produce and distribute books about Maine that other presses might be apt to pass over. The story of town team and semi-pro baseball in Maine and the players and towns represented is one such project. There are many other similar stories that need telling. I’m in the early stages of planning my next book, which will be the big release of 2006 by RiverVision, as well as exploring releasing a nonfiction book by another Maine-based writer. I have a few ideas and will probably call for manuscripts later in the year.

Having said all of that, it is absolutely overwhelming taking on the role of publisher, in addition to being a writer. I recognize why others shy away from it. Not only do you have the manuscript to polish and get ready for the printer, you have all the other responsibilities from marketing to distribution and the other endless tasks that running a small enterprise requires.

I’m quite pleased that I’m nearing an agreement with a printer (a Maine-based company, btw) and I am confident that the book will actually be available in September (hopefully the first week) for shipping.

I’ve already received several pre-orders of the book, which qualifies the buyer to a hand-numbered and personalized copies of When Towns Had Teams. I have completed a mailing to many of the former players and others that I interviewed. From that mailing, two mail orders were sitting in my mail yesterday.

I made several phone calls to book sellers around the state and most independent book stores are eager to carry my book. Some, like L.L. Bean, require that I have my book carried by a large wholesale distributor like Ingram. There is a smaller Maine-based distribution network that I was given the name of that I’ll need to check out.

As you can see, I often end up with more tasks then there are hours in the day. If I didn’t need to grab four of five hours of sleep, I know I could get more done, but being the weak creature that I am, I do require some sack time. Oh, and did I mention my responsibilities to the Twilight League? Needless to say, I’m a bit busy of late, but I’m very encouraged by where I’m at project-wise. Finally, I can see a sliver of light at the end of the tunnel and When Towns Had Teams is going to be a book that I’m proud of and I think others are really going to enjoy. BTW, it’s bigger than I thought it would be. I haven’t done my final layout, but my calculations based on the technical support provided by the printer have the estimates of a book that will be around 300 to 310 pages. With the original photos that I’ll include and the wealth of historical details, as well as the great stories of a wonderful group representing the last great generation, I think it’s certainly a value at the current price of $17.95.

I’ll continue to provide details as they unfold, both here and at the RiverVision website.

My full social calendar

I've gotten out in a social setting for two days in a row! My workaholic ways have enjoyed a brief respite over the past two evenings.

Friday night, it was at teammate John Carriero's place for burgers, brats and beer, after our doubleheader was rained out. Last night, it was Mary and I stepping out and heading up the road to the Winthrop/Monmouth town line for some BBQ.

Granted, I had put in a full Saturday at that point and was ready to leave the crib and not have to cook. In the morning, I headed down to Portland to cover an all-star game for 14-year-old Babe Ruth players. The game took place at Haverty Field. This ballpark had been a staple of Twilight League baseball in the 1960's, when John Haverty had built it behind his stately home on Washington Avenue, for use by his Haverty Buick Wildcats, as well as other local teams. Over the years, the field has fallen into disuse and it wasn't maintained any longer for baseball. Frank Watson, local businessman and owner of Lender's Network, as well as an avid baseball fan, former Twilight player (and current sponsor and GM), and a great supporter of local baseball, bought Haverty's home and has been involved since April in restoring the field. His son's Babe Ruth team of 14-year-old all-stars are currently using the field. I was there to write an article for next weeks Forecaster on the league.

Speaking of The Forecaster, I had an article this week on a former Twilight League player, Leif Ekelund, now playing professionally in Arizona in the new professional, independent, Golden Baseball League. I enjoyed doing the article and I especially enjoyed beating the Portland Press Herald to the punch. Ekelund hails from Cape Elizabeth and his story is an interesting one. Here's a young man who headed to the west coast to go to grad school and he attends a two-day tryout camp and is offered a professional contract. Seems to me that it was an interesting feature, but then again, that would mean some of the hacks at the Press Herald might have to do a bit of work.

Came home, spent three hours mowing my lawn at the compound and then, after a quick shower, Mary and I were off to find Little Dan's BBQ. We weren't disappointed. It is literally at the town line on the right heading towards Augusta on Route 202. It's easy to drive by, if not for the smoking train sitting out front. Non-descript and working class to the core, the barbecue was worth driving for. I had my usual pulled pork plate and Mary had half-a-rack of ribs. Both were tasty, with sauces available on the table to add to your own liking and taste. I had the corn bread and potato salad for sides. The potato salad was tasty, with just the right mix of seasoning and mayonnaise. The corn bread was sweeter than most and very moist.

I washed it down with a couple of PBR's and Miss Mary had a Sam Adams Summer Ale. They do have wine, but were out of the red variety. Knowing the rules of red with pork and other similar meats, Mary, not a big fan of beer, opted to be adventuresome on this visit.

I would recommend a trip to Little Dan's the next time you are in the vicinity of Monmouth/Winthrop. The barbecue is great, the prices reasonable and the area is worth exploring along the way.

Summer reading program

I finally got my hands on Jim Kunstler's, The Long Emergency. It comes to me courtesy of the Maine State Library's, Books-By-Mail Program (there are advantages to living in a town without a library).

While only 110 pages into the 268 page book, here a just a few observations that JK makes about imperial America during its summer of Reality TV.

On cheap oil:

Above all, and most immediately, we face the end of the cheap fossil fuel era. It is no exaggeration to state that reliable supplies of cheap oil and natural gas underlie everything we identify as a benefit of modern life. All the necessities, comforts, luxuries, and miracles of our time--central heating, air conditioning, cars, airplanes, electric lighting, cheap clothing, recorded music, movies, supermarkets, power tools, hip replacement surgery, the national defense, you name it--owe their origins or continued existence in one way or another to cheap fossil fuel.

On suburban sprawl:

America finds itself nearing the end of the cheap-oil age having invested its national wealth in a living arrangement--suburban sprawl--that has no future. When media commentators cast about struggling to explain what has happened in our country economically, they uniformly overlook the colossal misinvestment that suburbia represents--a prodigious, unparalleled misallocation of resources.

It's amazing to me, in our land of bread and circuses, how uninformed and in stone-cold denial the everyday citizen is about oil and its unsustainability as the foundation of all that we know in the coming years. As Neil Postman wrote about extensively, Americans have an irrational belief in technology's ability to save us. As Kunstler notes, neither technology, nor the promise of alternative fuels will be able to save us from the long emergency.

If there is one book that I wish more people would read during the remainder of 2005, it would be this one. I'm not holding my breath, waiting for that to happen, however.

I've found that despite the label of pessimism and "profit of doom" that so many would lob the way of someone writing a book like Kunstler's, I find it invigorating and in line with much of what I've thought about and observed during the past five years or so.

True reality has a freeing quality missing from so much of the manufactured faux reality that permeates most of our waking moments.